2020 aluminum price trend forecast
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, China ’s primary aluminum production in December 2019 was 3.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%; the total annual output in 2019 was 35.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, which is different from the predicted increase of 3.4% at the beginning of the year. However, the benefit of reduced output is far from offsetting the cliff-like decline in terminal consumption. China's auto sales in 2019 were announced at 25.769 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%. The investment in real estate development nationwide was 13,219.4 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped extremely significantly. Under the negative impact of the two major downstream industries, the trend of aluminum is sluggish, but it is expected that this pessimistic expectation has been fully reflected in the current price. In 2020, real estate and automobiles have bottomed out and rebounded, or the aluminum price trend will change.
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