Dollar index closed at 98.335 on November 12th, recovering from the previous day's decline of 98.423, Lun aluminum closed at $1781 / ton, up $3 / ton, Shanghai aluminum closed at 13810 yuan / ton, down 0.43%.

Macro:

1) Ministry of Commerce: from January to October, China's total import and export volume was 25.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.4 percent. Of this total, exports totaled 13.99 trillion yuan, up 4.9 percent; imports totaled 11.64 trillion yuan, down 0.4 percent; and the trade surplus increased by 42.3 percent to 2.35 trillion yuan.

2) Focus on today's release of the October non-quarterly CPI annual rate, the index is usually used to observe the level of inflation, the Fed adjusted monetary policy with reference to this data.

3) Focus on the first public hearing held by the US House of Representatives today on President Trump's impeachment investigation.

 Fundamentals:

1) The cost end of aluminum price has an obvious downward trend. Due to the opening of the import window, the price of alumina has downward pressure, and the bidding price of the pre-baked anode market in November is 100 yuan / ton lower than that in October. In the near future, due to the poor market demand, the unit price of cryolite and aluminum fluoride also has a downward trend, and the support at the cost end is not strong.

2) Car production and sales in October were 2.295 million and 2.284 million respectively, according to the China Automobile Association. The decline in production was 4.5 percentage points less than the previous month, and the year-on-year decline in sales was 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. The car market has picked up, aluminum wheels and recycled aluminum-related orders have picked up significantly, and consumption in November is more likely to be better than in October. In addition, motorcycle production rose more than 29% in October from a year earlier. Spot end: yesterday morning Shanghai and Wuxi market spot quotation between 13850-13880 yuan / ton, a small number of transactions, with the market guidance price open, the two quotation began to focus on 13910-13930 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day price fell nearly 120 yuan / ton, the month between 140 to 120 yuan / ton, Hangzhou spot price between 1393013950 yuan / ton. Yesterday the holder shipment is OK, the middleman low price receives the goods mood to be more positive, the two sides trades actively, the transaction is good. Due to a sharp drop in prices downstream of yesterday's pick-up status was significantly better than a few days ago, procurement has increased, but there are also some businesses are weak on the future and therefore still wait and see. On the whole, the deal in East China is OK. Today, I heard that the spot quotation is about 90-100 yuan / ton for the 1912 contract. It is expected that the price today is less than 50 yuan / ton lower than yesterday.

Summary: the rate of electrolytic aluminum inventory removal has slowed compared with the previous period, in the supply side of new investment and new production capacity gradually increased, superimposed forward consumption weakening expectations did not change, the forward price is still under pressure, the price center of gravity is expected to sink this month compared with the previous month. Short-term warehouse orders relatively tight situation, Shanghai aluminum back structure maintained, because the month aluminum prices are higher, and demand is relatively weak, spot discount has expanded. As the phenomenon of long delivery of the 1911 contract may be repeated in December, it is necessary to pay careful attention to the price difference between the 12-02 contracts and look for room for arbitrage.

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