1. [the monthly climate index of the Chinese color aluminum smelting industry rebounded 1.1 points from the previous month] the monitoring results of the economy index of the medium color aluminum smelting industry showed that in September 2019, the climate index rebounded 1.1 points from the previous month to 33.7, which was at the bottom of the "normal" range; the first composite index rose 1.9 points to 70.1. Both the prosperity index and the pre-composite index showed a trend of index recovery. The operation of the industry shows that the supply side shrinks, the demand side is still weak, the center of gravity of aluminum prices moves down, the industry as a whole still remains profitable but the benefits have fallen, and the upward pressure on the prosperity of the industry continues to exist.

2. [Rusal's third quarter 2019 aluminum production increased 0.4 percent from the previous quarter] Rusal's latest quarterly report showed that aluminum production was 942000 tons in the third quarter of 2019, an increase of 0.4 percent over the previous quarter. Aluminum sales were 1.091 million tons, an increase of 0.8 tons over the previous month, alumina production was 1.96 million tons, an increase of 2.1% over the previous month, and bauxite production was 3.948 million tons, down 6.9% from the previous month.

Summary: last week, Shanghai aluminum as a whole maintained a narrow shock, the price center of gravity is still in the 13800 area. At present, electrolytic aluminum fundamentals lack the inducing factors of trend market. Under the concentrated production reduction in the third quarter, the total volume of production reduction has exceeded the total amount of new production and resumption of production since the beginning of the year. After the National Day, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to decline. At present, it has approached the threshold of 800000 tons. However, at present, there is no obvious bright spot on the consumer side, the output of aluminum ingots is basically the same as that of the previous year, and the performance of the main consumption areas downstream is relatively flat. In the fundamental lack of hype material, Shanghai aluminum short-term expected to get rid of shock market, prices or run between 13600-13900.

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