Recently, the 2019 China Aluminum Summit was held in Guiyang, and nearly 100 representatives of related companies in the aluminum industry chain attended the conference. Analysts said at the meeting that China's alumina dependence on foreign countries is relatively low. As domestic alumina production continues to expand, imports may continue to decline in the future.

At the meeting, Li Suheng, a researcher at Huatai Futures Nonferrous Metals, said that China's alumina industry has the following characteristics: First, it has been in a state of rapid growth in recent years, and production in 2018 has accounted for 55% of the world's total output. In 2003, it only accounted for 10%; second, the dependence on alumina was declining year by year; third, the cost pressure of domestic alumina enterprises was relatively large. The weighted average cost of the current alumina industry in the country was 2,400-2,500 yuan/ton; The distribution has obvious resource-oriented characteristics, mainly distributed in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi and other places.

China's alumina production capacity is basically matched with the downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the output can be self-sufficient and the dependence on foreign countries is low. In 2017, China imported a total of 2.86 million tons of alumina, accounting for only 4% of China's total alumina supply, and only 1% in 2018. Among them, Australia is China's largest importer, accounting for more than 60% of total imports. As China's alumina production continues to expand, future imports may continue to decline.

“In the past, aluminum companies used aluminum futures to maintain value, and the dynamic correlation between alumina and Shanghai aluminum was very unstable, which led to large deviations in the hedging of alumina by Shanghai Aluminum.” Li Suheng said that For alumina producers and consumer companies, the market risk comes from both buying and selling. They are worried about the rise in alumina prices and the fall in the price of electrolytic aluminum. They are even more afraid of the rise in alumina prices and the fall in the price of electrolytic aluminum. When alumina production is in a break-even line, it tends to be elastic or not, and the liquidity of the spot declines. Therefore, for electrolytic aluminum companies or traders, they can buy and hold in the vicinity of the weighted average cost line of the alumina industry; For alumina companies or traders, the completion of the planned profit target can be sold on futures.

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