July is still the low season of consumption in the aluminum market. In addition, the price of raw material aluminum and prebaked anodes continued to decline, which also led to a decline in the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, which gradually reduced the support of the aluminum market. Overall, there is no bright spot in the fundamentals of the aluminum market, and the aluminum futures will continue to operate under pressure.

July is the low season of downstream consumption in the aluminum market. The demand side is generally good, and it is difficult to boost the aluminum price. In terms of inventory, the decline in the inventory of aluminum futures in the previous period has slowed significantly. As of July 12, the aluminum stocks of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 419,050 tons, down 2,662 tons from last week, of which the futures inventory was 155,266 tons, down 5515 tons from last week. At present, the decline in inventory is less than the peak season of consumption in March and April. In addition, in terms of social inventory, as of July 11, SMM's five-site electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1.042 million tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from last week, and inventory increased slightly.

According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals' research on aluminum profile enterprises, it entered the traditional seasonal off-season in July. According to some research companies, this year's market is not as good as last year. SMM analyzed that the property market was relatively active last year, and the orders for building materials and some industrial materials performed well. The off-season is not dim, so the overall operating rate of profiles in July last year is relatively high, and this year will enter the normal off-season, it is difficult to reproduce the good state of last year, and the operating rate will be less than the same year-on-year. From the perspective of the aluminum foil industry, according to SMM research and statistics, the operating rate of China's aluminum foil industry in June was 87.83%, a slight decrease of 0.85% from May and a 2% decrease from the same period last year. Entering July, the arrival of high temperature weather has restricted the production of some terminal industries such as food enterprises. The upward transmission will inevitably suppress the order quantity of relevant aluminum foil manufacturers. In summary, with the official arrival of the off-season, it is expected that the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry will further decline in July.

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