Inland domestic mine supply is tightening, and imported mine using technology is gradually maturing.

The use of imported ore has obvious advantages: Low lime consumption, low dissolution temperature, stable supply, and low price fluctuations. In addition, the production line transformation cycle takes about one month, and the amount of funds is not large. Whether it is rerouting or blending, it can be adjusted by technology to achieve near or cost even lower than using domestic mines. In the long run, the inflow of imported ore will continue to increase, which will ease the pressure on the domestic supply of ore, and the domestic ore price will be controlled within a reasonable range. In the short-term and medium-term perspective, the environmental protection inspectors are difficult to relax during the year. The bauxite price will remain relatively high in the second half of the year. The northern bauxite price is expected to fluctuate around 500 yuan.

Shanxi alumina supply is gradually repaired, and prices are facing downward pressure for a long time.

The Shanxi environmental protection incident caused a significant decline in the supply of alumina in Shanxi. Our research shows that other companies have basically recovered from the reduction and production of the borders caused by environmental protection in May. In the short-term, due to the short-term failure to resume production in the Jiaokou area, the superimposed ore supply is still tight and the price is high. Although the alumina price has a downward pressure in the short term, the magnitude and speed are expected to be relatively limited. In the long run, the potential supply of alumina in the year is still sufficient (more than 9 million tons), and the overseas alumina import window has been opened. Therefore, the price has been facing a significant downward pressure for a long time, and the low point of the year may retest the 2,600 yuan.

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